Warming Overwhelms the Efficacy of Wet Conditions to Moderate Extreme Heat and Atmospheric Aridity Across the Central Plains

Abstract While the relationships between dry land surface conditions, heat, and aridity have been well‐established, few studies addressed whether global warming will affect ability of wet conditions to moderate high temperatures atmospheric aridity. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, we demonstrate that absolute changes in monthly maximum temperature distribution during Central North American summers strongly outweigh historical cooling effect precipitation soil moisture conditions. Although nearly always prevent concurrent extreme baseline period, these are 40%–48% 96%–98% less effective at 1 2° warming, respectively. However, partially retain constrain vapor pressure deficit below thresholds 1–2° warming. Our results highlight growing vulnerability America warmer drier even periods moisture.